Highlights

• • Market price: Kabbaj 1.394 (implied ~71.8%)
• • Our estimated true probability for Kabbaj: 62% → fair odds ~1.613

Pros

• + Clear decision: current price is too short relative to our estimate
• + Research shows no decisive advantage for the underdog in supplied data

Cons

• - Limited and overlapping research data increases uncertainty in the estimate
• - No H2H, specific surface, or injury details were provided to refine the model

Details

Market prices make Yasmine Kabbaj a heavy favorite at decimal 1.394 (implied ~71.8%). The public odds appear to price a large edge for the home side. Our independent assessment, based strictly on the supplied player profiles and recent results (which show similar career records and recent losses for both players, with no reliable H2H or surface edge provided), is that the true win probability for Kabbaj is materially lower than the market-implied 71.8% — we estimate ~62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613; the available 1.394 is too short and yields a negative expected return, so we do not recommend betting either side at the displayed prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.394) is ~71.8% vs our conservative estimate of 62%
• • Provided player profiles are nearly identical with no clear H2H or surface advantage in the research
• • Recent form in the supplied data shows losses for both players, increasing uncertainty and reducing confidence in a large favorite