Highlights

• • Market says Mansouri ~10.5% chance (9.5), we estimate ~20% — clear pricing gap
• • EV at current price: +0.90 (90% ROI on a 1-unit stake under our estimate)

Pros

• + Strong EV signal: our probability estimate produces a large positive expected value at current odds
• + No research data in provided sources justifies an overwhelming favorite — supports contrarian underdog play

Cons

• - Information is limited (no H2H, venue/surface specifics for this match, unknown injury/status), increasing uncertainty
• - Market may reflect outside information not included in the supplied research (reason for heavy favorite), so risk of model misspecification is high

Details

We find clear value backing the home underdog (Yasmine Mansouri). The provided player profiles show virtually identical recent records and results for both players (each listed 10-21 with similar recent losses), and there is no research evidence justifying the extreme market price for Alexandra Eala (1.03). The market-implied probability for Mansouri at 9.5 is only ~10.5%, which is far below a reasonable assessment given the available data. Conservatively, we estimate Mansouri's true match-winning probability at 20% (see calculations below); at the quoted 9.5 decimal price that produces a strongly positive expected value (EV = 0.20 * 9.5 - 1 = +0.90). Even if Mansouri is an underdog, the research does not support a near-certain expectation for Eala, so the large margin between our probability estimate and the market price constitutes high-value opportunity. We note elevated risk due to sparse predictive signals (no H2H, limited surface/context detail, unknown status/injuries), but purely from the provided research the underdog is mispriced and warrants a value back.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical recent records in supplied profiles (10-21), so an extreme market favorite is unsupported by form data
• • Market-implied probability for Mansouri at 9.5 (~10.5%) is substantially lower than our conservative estimated win chance (20%)
• • No provided evidence of injury, head-to-head dominance, or surface advantage that would justify Eala pricing at 1.03