Highlights

• • Market implies ~95.5% for Mansouri (1.047) — we estimate ~70%
• • Requires ≥1.429 decimal to be +EV based on our probability

Pros

• + If Ana Cruz is truly a much weaker player (unknown), the favorite could be correct
• + Mansouri has some experience on tour which could matter in qualifiers

Cons

• - Mansouri's 10-21 record and recent losses argue against near-certain market pricing
• - No information on Ana Cruz means high informational risk; current price appears miscalibrated

Details

The market prices Yasmine Mansouri as a near-certainty at 1.047 (implied ~95.5%), but the data we have on Mansouri shows a 10-21 career record and recent losses, which does not justify a ~95% true win probability. We lack any performance data for Ana Cruz, so we cannot identify a compelling mismatch that would justify the bookmaker's extreme pricing. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Mansouri of 70%, the implied fair odds (1.429) are far longer than the current 1.047, producing a materially negative expected value at the available price. Given the information gap on the opponent and Mansouri's poor recent form, we decline to recommend a bet because the current market offers no positive EV.

Key factors

• • Mansouri's overall career win-loss record is 10-21, indicating limited winning consistency
• • Recent results show consecutive losses; form is poor in the most recent matches
• • Bookmaker price (1.047) implies ~95.5% probability which is not supported by the available performance data
• • No data provided for Ana Cruz, creating uncertainty about whether a true mismatch exists