Highlights

• • Market-implied probabilities: Home ~45.9%, Away ~59.3%
• • Our parity-based estimate: Home 50% -> value at 2.18

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current home price under a neutral (50/50) model
• + Simple, conservative assessment based on supplied identical player data

Cons

• - Very limited and identical data for both players increases model uncertainty
• - Small EV (≈9%) which is sensitive to even slight changes in the true probability estimate

Details

We find no clear performance edge in the provided data: both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on clay and hard. The market prices the away player as a clear favorite (implied ~59.3% at 1.685) while the home player is listed at 2.18 (implied ~45.9%). With symmetric profiles and no H2H or injury information to separate them, a neutral model assigns roughly a 50% win probability to each player. At a 50% true probability, the fair decimal price is 2.00, so the current home price of 2.18 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.5 * 2.18 - 1 = 0.09). This is a small but tangible edge that assumes parity between the players; if additional evidence (seeding, practice reports, local conditions) were available favoring the away player, that would remove the value.

Key factors

• • Both players have virtually identical win-loss records and recent results in the supplied data
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.685) despite lack of distinguishing info
• • At an assumed 50% true probability the home price (2.18) exceeds fair value (2.00)