Yasmine Kabbaj vs Petra Marcinko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Yasmine Kabbaj at 5.0 because the market underestimates her chances relative to our 25% true probability estimate, producing a positive EV (~0.25).
Highlights
- • Market implies Yasmine has only ~20% chance; we assess ~25%
- • Fair decimal (1 / 0.25) = 4.00; current 5.0 offers a sizeable edge
Pros
- + Significant overlay vs. implied market probability
- + Profiles and recent results in the research point to a more balanced contest than the odds suggest
Cons
- - Limited data and no H2H or surface-specific edge provided in the research
- - Market may be incorporating factors not present in the supplied data (e.g., fitness, late withdrawals), making this a higher-risk value bet
Details
We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form (multiple recent losses on hard and clay). The market heavily favors Petra Marcinko at 1.15 (implied ~87.0%), which implies Yasmine Kabbaj has only a ~20% chance. Given the comparable profiles, lack of clear injury or surface advantage in the provided data, that market price appears overstated. We estimate Yasmine's true chance materially higher (~25%), making the available decimal 5.0 (+400) a value opportunity. Using our probability (25%), the fair price is 4.00; the current 5.0 quote yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.25). We are cautious because data is limited and the market may reflect other unseen factors, so the pick is driven strictly by the odds gap versus our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and match counts (31), suggesting a more even matchup than the market implies
- • Recent form: both have multiple recent losses on hard and clay, reducing a clear form edge
- • Market strongly favors Marcinko (1.15) despite comparable profiles — indicates potential value on the underdog