Yassin Ahmed Wageh vs Timofei Derepasko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on the heavily-favoured Timofei Derepasko at 1.07 given his modest 9-7 record and limited data; insufficient information on the home player prevents identifying value on the underdog.
Highlights
- • Derepasko's recorded win rate (~56%) is far below the market-implied ~93%
- • With our conservative 60% win probability estimate, the fair price (~1.667) is well above the market price of 1.07
Pros
- + We base the view on objective career numbers provided (9-7 record, surfaces played)
- + Conservative probability estimation avoids overbetting on incomplete data
Cons
- - Very limited dataset (only Derepasko profile) and no info on Yassin Ahmed Wageh
- - Market may reflect contextual factors not present in the supplied research (injury, withdrawal, local form), increasing uncertainty
Details
Market prices strongly favor Timofei Derepasko at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%) which is inconsistent with the only available performance data. Derepasko's career record from the provided profile is 9-7 (56.3%) across 16 matches on clay and hard, with mixed recent results. We estimate Derepasko's true match win probability at ~60% based on that limited sample and surface exposure; at that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.667. The current price of 1.07 offers a negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.07 - 1 = -0.358), so backing Derepasko at current market odds is unprofitable. Conversely, the home player (Yassin Ahmed Wageh) is unknown in the provided research, so we cannot justify a higher true probability than implied by the 7.0 market price without additional data. Given the extreme market skew and lack of information on the home player, we decline to recommend a side because no clear value exists in the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Provided profile shows Derepasko career record 9-7 (56.3%) over 16 matches — not dominant
- • Market price (1.07) implies ~93.5% win probability, which is inconsistent with available form data
- • No information on home player (Yassin Ahmed Wageh) in the provided research
- • Surface exposure: Derepasko has played clay and hard, so surface mismatch risk is limited but not decisive
- • Small sample size and mixed recent results increase uncertainty