Highlights

• • Noguchi has the superior recent win-loss profile on hard courts
• • Current odds (1.94) imply slightly less chance than our estimate, producing a small positive EV

Pros

• + Edge arises from Noguchi’s stronger hard-court record in the provided data
• + Market slightly overprices Uchiyama, creating value on the away side

Cons

• - Edge is small (~2.8% ROI on a single bet) and sensitive to estimation error
• - Research sample is limited and recent-match details are sparse, increasing variance

Details

We rate Rio Noguchi as the value side. The market prices Yasutaka Uchiyama at 1.82 (implied 54.9%) and Noguchi at 1.94 (implied 51.5%). From the provided player profiles Noguchi has a stronger overall record this span (40-28) and a primary focus on hard courts, whereas Uchiyama’s record is weaker (26-31) and more mixed across surfaces. Both played in the recent Shanghai event, but Noguchi’s hard-court background and better win-loss suggest a higher true win probability than the market-implied 51.5% for him. We estimate Noguchi’s true probability at 53.0%, which makes the current 1.94 price slightly valuable (EV = 0.028 at these odds). Given the thin edge, we remain cautious about sample noise and match-level variables, but the price offers a small positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Noguchi’s stronger overall record (40-28) versus Uchiyama (26-31) in the provided span
• • Noguchi primarily plays hard courts whereas Uchiyama is more mixed, favoring Noguchi on hard (outdoor)
• • Market implies slightly higher chance for Uchiyama; we assess Noguchi’s true win probability exceeds the market-implied price