Ye Cong Mo/Tianhui Zhang vs V. Kirkov/B. Stevens

Highlights

• • Implied home probability at 8.0 = 12.5%; our estimate = 12.0%
• • Required decimal odds for value = 8.333; market is 8.0

Pros

• + Both home players have experience on hard courts
• + If opponent quality is overestimated by the market, value could appear

Cons

• - Current market price is slightly shorter than our fair value, producing negative EV
• - Research lacks any data on the opponents and offers only mixed recent form for the home players

Details

We compared the market price (Home 8.0, Away 1.07) to a conservative estimate of the home team's true chance based on the provided player profiles. Ye Cong Mo (20-20) and Tianhui Zhang (28-20) have modest records and mixed recent form on hard courts; nothing in the research indicates a clear expected upset over heavily-favored opponents. The implied probability at 8.0 is 12.5%. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at ~12.0% based on form and surface matchups from the available profiles. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~8.333; the current market price of 8.0 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.12*8.0 - 1 = -0.04), so there is no value to back the home side. Given the extreme market lean toward the away team (1.07) and lack of opponent data in the research, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Home players have modest records and mixed recent form on hard courts
• • Market heavily favors the away team (1.07), implying a >93% chance which is not supported by available profiles
• • No information provided about the opponents to suggest an overrated market price for them
• • Fair decimal price for the home team given our estimate is ~8.333, above the current 8.0