Highlights

• • Implied market probability ~85.2% vs our 70% estimate
• • Fair odds should be ~1.429 — current price is too short

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors Yeon Woo Ku, indicating high liquidity
• + If additional positive info on the home player emerged, a bet could become attractive

Cons

• - Current odds offer negative expected value versus our probability estimate
• - Research is limited and duplicated, increasing uncertainty about true matchup dynamics

Details

The market prices Yeon Woo Ku at 1.173 (implied ~85.2%). Our assessment, given the sparse and duplicated player data, recent match losses for both players, and no clear surface or H2H edge, is that the market is overstating the home’s win chances. We estimate Yeon Woo Ku’s true win probability at 70%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.429. At the current offered price of 1.173 there is no value (EV negative). The information quality is low and symmetric for both players, so we decline to recommend backing the heavy favorite at these short odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.173) much shorter than our estimated true probability
• • Research data is sparse/duplicated and shows recent losses for the players
• • No clear surface advantage, H2H, or injury info to justify the heavy favorite pricing