Highlights

• • Home price 1.37 implies ~73% — we assess this as too high
• • Away at 3.02 offers positive EV given our 42% probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ~26.8%)
• + Research shows no decisive advantage for the home player (similar records and surfaces)

Cons

• - Limited available data and small sample sizes increase uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If there is an unreported contextual advantage for Yeon Woo Ku (seeding, local conditions), the edge could evaporate

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our assessment from the provided player data. The market prices imply Yeon Woo Ku (home) has ~73.0% win probability (1.37) and Miho Kuramochi (away) ~33.1% (3.02). The research shows both players have identical documented records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay and hard) with no injury or clear form advantage for the home player. A modest home/seed edge might exist, but not enough to justify the short 1.37 price. We estimate Miho Kuramochi's true win probability at 42% (Yeon Woo Ku 58%), which implies fair decimals of 2.381 for the away player. At the available away price 3.02 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 3.02 - 1 = 0.268). Given limited and symmetric data in the research, the market appears to overvalue the home player and underprice the away player, creating a value opportunity on the away moneyline.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical documented records (10-21) and similar surface profiles
• • Bookmaker-implied probability (home 73%) appears overstated vs. available performance data
• • No injuries or clear recent-form edge reported in the provided research