Highlights

• • Market-implied favorite probability (~77%) exceeds what the available data supports
• • Away line 3.25 exceeds our break-even odds (2.222) — positive expected ROI

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current odds (≈46% expected ROI)
• + Decision based on comparable player metrics and lack of supporting evidence for heavy favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited (no H2H, limited context) so model uncertainty is substantial
• - Tennis matches have high variance; even positive-EV plays can lose in short sample

Details

We see both players with virtually identical available profiles (10-21 career records, similar surface history and recent poor form) and no injury or H2H information that clearly favors Yeon Woo Ku. The book market prices the home at 1.30 (implied ~77% raw), which is far higher than our assessment based on the research. We estimate the away player (Rina Saigo) has roughly a 45% chance to win here; at the offered decimal 3.25 that converts to an expected value of ~0.463 (EV = 0.45 * 3.25 - 1 = 0.4625). In short, the market appears to overstate the favorite without evidence, producing clear value on the away moneyline.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and have played the same surfaces — no clear quality gap in available data
• • Recent results for both are poor and there are no reported injuries or other edges for the favorite
• • Market prices a heavy favorite (1.30) which is not supported by the research; this creates value on the away side at 3.25