Highlights

• • Current price 3.56 requires only ~28.1% chance to breakeven; we estimate ~33%
• • Small-sample data and noisy stats increase the probability of market mispricing

Pros

• + Significant upside relative to implied market probability
• + Both competitors have similar surface experience, limiting skill-based edge for the favorite

Cons

• - Very small match samples make our probability estimate uncertain
• - No H2H and limited recent form — higher variance and event-level risk

Details

We find value backing the home player (Yeonsu Jeong) at 3.56. The market strongly favors Jaesung Choe (1.245, ~80% implied) despite both players having very limited and poor form on hard courts (Jeong 1-4, Choe 0-3). Given the tiny sample sizes and noisy match stats, we believe the market is overestimating Choe's win probability. Conservatively estimating Jeong's true win probability at 33% (accounting for her slightly larger match sample and similar surface exposure) produces positive EV at the quoted 3.56. Key drivers: identical surface history, extremely small samples making prices volatile, and anomalously high favorite pricing that appears to leave room for an upset value line.

Key factors

• • Both players have extremely small professional samples on hard courts (limited reliable form data)
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~80%) despite similar/poor records—possible overreaction
• • Jeong has marginally more match exposure (5 vs 3) and a recorded win, reducing downside relative to price