Highlights

• • Friedsam's recent season record (10-21) undermines the 1.36 favorite pricing
• • If Yexin Ma's true chance ≥37%, the current 3.10 offers positive expected value

Pros

• + Positive EV at available price (approx +0.147 ROI)
• + Market likely overreacting to Friedsam's name/experience despite poor results

Cons

• - Very limited publicly-available data on Yexin Ma increases uncertainty
• - Friedsam may still have intrinsic match-quality advantages not visible in the basic record

Details

We see the market pricing Anna-Lena Friedsam as a heavy favorite at 1.36 (implied ~73.5%), but the research shows Friedsam with a 2024-2025 record of 10-21 and clear signs of poor recent form. The market's implied probability for Yexin Ma at 3.10 is ~32.3%; given Friedsam's weak results and form volatility, we estimate the true chance that the home player (Yexin Ma) wins is materially higher than the market-implied ~32%. Using a conservative adjusted win probability of 37.0% for Yexin Ma, the fair price is 1 / 0.37 = 2.703. At the available 3.10, that represents positive expected value: EV = 0.37 * 3.10 - 1 = +0.147 (14.7% ROI per unit stake). We are factoring in the documented poor win-rate and recent match losses for Friedsam, the possibility that the market overweights Friedsam's name/experience, and the lack of public data on Yexin Ma meaning the market may be overstating the favorite. Because our probability edge is modest and uncertainty around the unlisted home player remains, we size this as a medium-risk value play.

Key factors

• • Friedsam's 2024-25 record is 10-21 indicating poor recent form
• • Market heavily favors Friedsam (1.36) while research suggests vulnerability
• • Home player (Yexin Ma) price (3.10) implies ~32% — we estimate a higher true chance (~37%)