Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability 64.5% vs our estimate 60.0%
• • Required fair odds for home to be +EV: 1.667; market is 1.55

Pros

• + Clear quantitative gap showing the favourite is over-priced relative to our conservative estimate
• + Decision errs on the side of capital preservation given lack of form/injury/H2H data

Cons

• - Limited research inputs increase uncertainty — our probability is conservative and could be off
• - If additional positive information for the underdog exists (not in research), value could shift

Details

We compare the market prices to our conservative estimate of true win probability for the home favourite (Yi Zhou). Market-implied probability for the home price 1.55 is 64.5% (1/1.55); for the away price 2.35 it's 42.6% (1/2.35) — the book contains a margin. Given only the surface information (hard outdoor) and no reliable form, injury, or H2H data in the research, we assign a more conservative true win probability of 60.0% to the home player. At that estimate the required fair decimal for a profitable bet is 1.667 (1/0.60); the quoted home price of 1.55 produces negative expected return (EV = 0.60 * 1.55 - 1 = -0.07). The away price would only be attractive if we believed Renta Tokuda's true win probability exceeded 42.6%, but with no supporting information to justify that uplift we cannot sensibly assign a higher probability to the underdog. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices because neither price offers positive expected value relative to our conservative probability estimates.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 64.5%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (60%)
• • Only surface info available (hard outdoor); no form, injury, or H2H detail to justify deviation
• • Book margin present; current prices do not offer positive EV against our estimate