Highlights

• • Market implies away 65.4% while home price implies 42.0%
• • Our fair estimate for home is ~50%, producing +0.19 EV at 2.38

Pros

• + Clear pricing disconnect between market and symmetric player data
• + Simple, model-aligned backing (home underdog with plausible 50% win chance)

Cons

• - Very limited and identical public data for both teams increases uncertainty
• - No granular doubles-specific chemistry, recent match-level or H2H info to refine estimate

Details

We find value backing the home pair (Yidi Yang/Yiming Dang) at 2.38. The publicly available profiles show virtually identical career spans, surface experience, and recent results for both pairs, so there is no clear competitive edge for the away side. The market-implied probabilities are ~65.4% for the away pair (1.53) and ~42.0% for the home pair (2.38). Given the symmetric data and lack of distinguishing factors (form, surface advantage, injuries, or H2H), we estimate the true win probability closer to 50% for the home side. At our estimated probability (0.50) the expected value on the home moneyline at 2.38 is positive (EV = 0.50*2.38 - 1 = +0.19), so the home price represents a value bet relative to our model.

Key factors

• • Profiles and recent results for both pairs are essentially identical
• • Market heavily favors away side (implied ~65%), creating possible mispricing
• • No reported injuries, surface or head-to-head edge to justify the market gap