Highlights

• • Home odds 2.98 imply only ~33.6% chance while we estimate ~45%
• • Estimated EV at current odds is ~0.341 (34.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Significant discrepancy between our probability and market implied probability
• + No injury or surface concerns found to justify heavy market favoritism

Cons

• - Limited information on doubles pair chemistry and recent partnership results in the research
• - Research data is sparse and identical across players, adding model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate of the true win chance. The market prices the away pair at 1.338 (implied ~74.7%) and the home pair at 2.98 (implied ~33.6%). The provided profiles show effectively identical records, recent form and surface exposure for all four players with no injury information or head-to-head data, which argues for a much closer matchup than the market implies. Given that parity, we estimate the home doubles' true win probability materially higher than the 33.6% implied by 2.98, so the home side represents value at the available price. We use the available current odds (2.98) to compute EV: EV = p * odds - 1.

Key factors

• • All four players show near-identical career records and recent form in the provided data, indicating a close matchup
• • Market heavily favors the away team (implied ~74.7%) despite no clear differentiator in the research
• • No injury or surface disadvantage identified, increasing likelihood that market favoritism is overstated