Ying Zhang vs Fangran Tian
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Ying Zhang at 4.35 because the market overestimates Fangran Tian's win probability; our conservative 30% estimate yields ~30.5% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Current market implies ~23% for Ying Zhang vs our 30% estimate
- • Breakeven odds for Ying Zhang are ~3.333; current 4.35 is above that threshold
Pros
- + Clear numeric value versus market-implied probability
- + Conservative true probability estimate still produces strong EV
Cons
- - Small sample and noisy recent form for both players increase uncertainty
- - Lack of head-to-head or venue-specific differentiators raises model risk
Details
We identify value on Ying Zhang as an underdog because the market prices Fangran Tian at 1.19 (implied ~84% win chance), which appears excessive given the available performance data. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, and recent form shown in the research indicates both have been registering losses rather than clear separation in quality. With no clear injury or head-to-head evidence favoring Tian to such a dominant degree, we estimate Ying Zhang's true chance materially above the market-implied 23%, and therefore the home line of 4.35 represents positive expected value. We use a conservative estimated true probability of 30% for Ying Zhang — enough to reflect the underdog status but also to account for uncertainty — which gives a positive EV at the quoted 4.35 price.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Market heavily favors the away player (1.19), implying an implausibly high win probability given available data
- • No injuries, H2H or form data in the research that justify such a large favorite edge