Ying Zhang vs Fangran Tian

Highlights

• • Current market implies ~23% for Ying Zhang vs our 30% estimate
• • Breakeven odds for Ying Zhang are ~3.333; current 4.35 is above that threshold

Pros

• + Clear numeric value versus market-implied probability
• + Conservative true probability estimate still produces strong EV

Cons

• - Small sample and noisy recent form for both players increase uncertainty
• - Lack of head-to-head or venue-specific differentiators raises model risk

Details

We identify value on Ying Zhang as an underdog because the market prices Fangran Tian at 1.19 (implied ~84% win chance), which appears excessive given the available performance data. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, and recent form shown in the research indicates both have been registering losses rather than clear separation in quality. With no clear injury or head-to-head evidence favoring Tian to such a dominant degree, we estimate Ying Zhang's true chance materially above the market-implied 23%, and therefore the home line of 4.35 represents positive expected value. We use a conservative estimated true probability of 30% for Ying Zhang — enough to reflect the underdog status but also to account for uncertainty — which gives a positive EV at the quoted 4.35 price.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.19), implying an implausibly high win probability given available data
• • No injuries, H2H or form data in the research that justify such a large favorite edge