Yingqun Sun/Jiayi Wang vs Yanan Hou/Yuping Wang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market strongly favors the home side (1.42) but the supplied data shows no clear edge; our 50% probability implies the price is overpriced so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.42) ~70.4% vs our estimate 50%
- • Required decimal odds for value with our estimate would be >= 2.00
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a favorite which could reflect non-public factors (if true)
- + Profiles confirm both teams have recent match experience on clay and hard
Cons
- - Provided research shows near-identical records and no distinguishing information
- - EV at current favorite price is clearly negative with our conservative probability
Details
We compared the market price (home 1.42 => market win probability ~70.4%) to our assessed win probability. The available player profiles show nearly identical career spans, identical 10-21 records, similar recent match listings and surfaces (clay, hard) for all four players, with no clear edge, injuries, or H2H data in the provided research. Given the symmetric data and high uncertainty, our best-estimate true probability for the listed home team is 50.0%. At that probability the home moneyline (1.42) yields negative expected value (EV = 0.5 * 1.42 - 1 = -0.29), so there is no value to back the favorite at the supplied price and we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both teams comprised of players with nearly identical 10-21 records in supplied profiles
- • Surfaces listed in profiles include clay and hard with no clear surface advantage
- • No injuries, H2H, or differentiating form evidence present in the research