Highlights

• • Both players appear evenly matched based on available data
• • Away price (2.10) exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.00) yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Clear, simple value: market odds exceed our estimated fair odds
• + Decision rests on conservative 50/50 estimate given identical profiles

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data — small edge (5% EV) vulnerable to unknown factors
• - No H2H, injury, or venue details to increase confidence in the estimate

Details

We find no meaningful performance differential in the provided profiles: both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, with no H2H, injury, or surface edge data to separate them. The market prices Yingqun Sun as the favorite at decimal 1.67 (implied probability ~59.9%), while Xi Luo is available at 2.10 (implied probability ~47.6%). Given symmetric evidence, we treat this as essentially a coin flip and estimate Xi Luo's true win probability at 50.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.00, so the current away price of 2.10 represents value. Using p=0.50 and odds 2.10 yields EV = 0.50*2.10 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI per unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the quoted 2.10 price, since expected_value > 0 and the minimum required odds for positive EV (2.00) are lower than the market price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar surface exposure
• • No clear H2H, injury, or surface advantage indicated in the provided research
• • Market prices imply Xi Luo is undervalued (2.10) relative to our 50% estimate