Yoshihito Nishioka vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present at current prices; the favorite (Struff) is slightly over-priced by the market relative to our 70% estimate, producing a small negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Struff (1.37) ≈ 73%; our estimate ≈ 70%
- • EV on Struff at 1.37 is about -0.041 per 1 unit — avoid wagering at current odds
Pros
- + We avoid a small but clear negative-expected-value wager
- + Decision reflects the uncertainty from limited contextual data (venue, H2H)
Cons
- - If additional information (injury, venue, head-to-head) were available it could change the edge
- - Small margins mean estimates are sensitive; a modest revision in true probability would flip value
Details
We compared the market prices (Struff 1.37, Nishioka 3.10) to our estimate of each player's true win chances based on the provided performance summaries and career records. Both players enter this match with below-.500 season records (Nishioka 15-23, Struff 20-27) and mixed recent results; Struff shows a marginally better win record and slightly stronger recent outcomes in the supplied notes, so we assign him the higher true probability but not enough to justify taking the book's price. The market-implied probability for Struff at 1.37 is ~73.0%, while our estimated true probability for Struff is 70.0% (odds_used_for_ev = 1.37). That produces EV = 0.70*1.37 - 1 = -0.041 (negative), so no positive-value wager exists at the available prices. Key sources of uncertainty are sparse head-to-head and venue data and generally poor recent form for both players; given that, none of the quoted prices offers a profitable edge.
Key factors
- • Both players have losing overall records in the provided season summaries (Nishioka 15-23, Struff 20-27)
- • Market strongly favors Struff (implied ~73%) but our model only gives him ~70% due to noisy recent form
- • Lack of head-to-head and venue/surface context in the provided research increases uncertainty