Yoshihito Nishioka vs Yannick Hanfmann

Highlights

• • Hanfmann's season win rate (32/59 ≈ 54.2%) substantially higher than Nishioka's (15/38 ≈ 39.5%).
• • Current away odds 1.84 exceed our fair odds threshold 1.818 for a 55% win probability.

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (small but real).
• + Clear statistical advantage in the provided season records.

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈1.2% ROI) and could be eroded by unreported factors (H2H, fitness, day-to-day form).
• - Research shows both players with recent losses; volatility in tennis means outcomes can swing.

Details

We compare the recent season records provided: Yannick Hanfmann is 32-27 (32 wins in 59 matches, ~54.2% win rate) while Yoshihito Nishioka is 15-23 (15 wins in 38 matches, ~39.5% win rate). Both have recent losses in the provided match lines and both play the same surfaces listed (Hard included), so surface does not materially favor Nishioka in the available data. The market moneyline implies probabilities of ~54.35% for Hanfmann (1.84) and ~51.02% for Nishioka (1.96). We estimate Hanfmann's true win probability at 55% based primarily on the stronger season win-rate (32/59) and comparable surface exposure and match-level results in the research. At our 55% estimate, the minimum fair decimal price is 1.818; the available price 1.84 is slightly above that, producing a positive expected value (EV = 0.55*1.84 - 1 = +0.012, or +1.2% ROI). There are uncertainties (no H2H in the provided data, limited injury info, and both showing recent losses), so the edge is small but present against the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Hanfmann superior season win-rate in provided dataset (32-27 vs 15-23)
• • Both players listed with recent results on hard courts; no surface advantage shown for Nishioka
• • Market price (1.84) implies slightly lower probability than our 55% estimate, creating small positive EV