Yu Hsiou Hsu vs Alejandro Tabilo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog (Hsu). At decimal 3.00 our model gives Hsu a ~38% win probability, producing ~0.14 units EV per 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market-implied Hsu probability: 33.3%; our estimate: 38%
- • Positive EV at current price (approx +14% ROI)
Pros
- + Hsu's recent wins on hard suggest good form and confidence
- + Current price (3.00) exceeds our min required odds (2.632) for value
Cons
- - Limited dataset and no head-to-head info in the provided research
- - Market still favors Tabilo, and outcomes can swing quickly in tennis
Details
We compare market-implied probability (Hsu at 3.00 -> 33.3%) to our assessment based on the available player data. Hsu's record in the research (35-31) and recent challenger wins on hard courts indicate improved form and match fitness, while Tabilo's listed recent results show several straight losses (including at higher events), suggesting poor recent form and possible fatigue. Both players have hard-court history, so surface is neutral; the market appears to favor Tabilo likely on reputation, but the form differential in the provided data narrows the true gap. We estimate Hsu's true win probability at 38%, which makes the current 3.00 price +EV (EV = 0.38 * 3.00 - 1 = 0.14). Given the information provided, backing Hsu at 3.00 offers value versus the market.
Key factors
- • Hsu's stronger recent match results on hard courts (challenger wins)
- • Tabilo's recent string of losses and potential fatigue from higher-level events
- • Market price likely reflects reputation/ranking rather than current form
- • Surface neutrality (both have played hard courts in the provided data)