Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.353) = ~73.9%; our estimate = 68.0%
• • Required decimal odds to back the favored side profitably = >= 1.471

Pros

• + Away team has a clear experience advantage on the data provided
• + Market correctly identifies the away pair as favorite

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.353) does not offer positive EV vs our model
• - Limited doubles-specific and surface information increases uncertainty

Details

We compared the market prices (Away 1.353, Home 2.90) to our assessment of true win probabilities using only the provided player profiles. Lanlana Tararudee brings a deep career record and experience advantage; Anna-Lena Friedsam appears a stronger partner relative to the less-proven pairing of Yu-Yun Li and Xinxin Yao, whose profiles show weak recent win-loss totals. Based on those factors we estimate the away pair is clearly favored but not as heavily as the market implies. The away implied probability at 1.353 is ~73.9%; our estimated true probability for the away team is ~68.0%, which yields a negative EV at current prices (EV ≈ -0.08 per unit). The home side would need decimal odds ≥1.471 to be profitable versus our model; the offered 2.90 implies a home probability (34.5%) that slightly overstates the underdogs relative to our view, but not enough to justify backing them either when accounting for limited doubles data and uncertainty. Therefore we decline to recommend a side because neither price shows positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Tararudee has a large career record vs limited records for Li/Yao
• • Recent form: Li and Yao show weak win-loss records in supplied profiles
• • Market price implies a higher certainty for the away pair (≈74%) than our model supports