Yu-Yun Li / Xinxin Yao vs Estelle Cascino / Shuo Feng

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) 40.8% vs our estimate 45%
• • Minimum fair odds for home are 2.222; current price 2.45 offers a margin

Pros

• + Price offers clear numerical edge relative to our probability model
• + Lack of convincing evidence for large away favoritism supports contrarian stance

Cons

• - Very limited doubles-specific data and identical weak singles form increases uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, surface or injury information to strongly validate the estimate

Details

We find value on the home pair (Yu-Yun Li / Xinxin Yao). The market prices the away team at 1.51 (implied ~66.2%) and the home team at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). The available research shows all four players with similar, weak recent singles records and no clear doubles edge for the away side; there is no convincing evidence to support the market's strong favoritism of the away pairing. Given the lack of distinguishing form/injury information and no H2H or surface advantage presented, a conservative reconstruction of true probability assigns the home pair a roughly 45.0% chance to win—meaning the market is underestimating them relative to our view. At the current home price of 2.45, that implies EV = 0.45 * 2.45 - 1 = +0.103 (about 10.3% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side because the price exceeds our minimum fair odds threshold (1 / 0.45 = 2.222). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited doubles-specific data and identical poor singles form across all four players, which raises variance and risk.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors away side but research does not justify large gap
• • All four players show similar weak recent records and no clear doubles edge
• • Current home price (2.45) exceeds our fair-odds threshold (2.222) creating positive EV