Highlights

• • Market implied probability: ~81.7%; our estimate: 86%
• • Positive EV ≈ 0.052 at current odds 1.223

Pros

• + Experienced, higher-volume careers suggest greater reliability
• + Current odds offer a modest positive edge versus our probability model

Cons

• - Edge is small — susceptible to variance and match-level factors not in the provided data
• - Research provided limited match-level context (no clear recent doubles-specific form or H2H)

Details

We estimate the Carle/Erjavec pairing is considerably stronger than Li/Yao based on experience and career win-volume in the provided profiles. The market price for Carle/Erjavec is 1.223 (implied ~81.7%). We estimate their true win probability at 86%, which implies required odds of 1.163. At the quoted 1.223 there is positive expected value (EV = 0.86 * 1.223 - 1 ≈ 0.052 per unit). The home pairing (Li/Yao) shows limited match success in the provided records (10-21 each) and does not justify the long price as a value play.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Carle and Erjavec
• • Li/Yao recent aggregated records show low win rates (10-21 each) in provided data
• • Market-implied probability (81.7%) is below our estimated true win probability (86%)