Highlights

• • Away implied probability (28.55) = ~3.5%; our estimate = 2.0%
• • Required odds for value on away = 50.0; current = 28.55 (no value)

Pros

• + We avoid a wager where available prices do not cover our uncertainty
• + Conservative probability avoids chasing extreme favorites or underdogs

Cons

• - If our conservative probability is too low we may miss a small positive edge
• - Extreme market prices can hide small opportunities that require more granular data

Details

We view the quoted prices (Home 1.027, Away 28.55) as extremely lopsided. The away price implies a win probability of ~3.5% (1/28.55). Given no external data returned and applying conservative assumptions about doubles volatility and uncertainty, we estimate the underdog's true chance at roughly 2.0%. At that estimate the required decimal odds to offer positive EV would be ~50.0, far above the available 28.55. The heavy favorite price (1.027) requires an implied probability >97.37% to be profitable versus our uncertainty; we cannot confidently assign that level of certainty, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external research available; we apply conservative baseline assumptions
• • Bookmaker prices are extreme: away implied probability ~3.5%, home implied ~97.4%
• • Estimated true probability for underdog (~2%) is well below break-even threshold for offered odds