Yu-Yun Li/Xinxin Yao vs E. Cascino/Shuo Feng
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home pair at 2.28 because available evidence suggests the match is closer than the market's 1.57 favorite indicates, producing an estimated EV of ~9.4%. Expect higher variance due to limited data.
Highlights
- • Home implied fair odds ~2.083 vs offered 2.28 — positive edge
- • Data for both sides is sparse and similar, weakening the favorite's market signal
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge: current odds > fair odds given our probability estimate
- + Market favorite lacks supporting player data in the research set
Cons
- - Player performance data is limited and noisy; Cascino's profile is absent, increasing uncertainty
- - Overall recent form shown for the named players is poor, so outcomes may be volatile
Details
We assess that the market-priced favorite (away at 1.57, implied ~63.7%) is overstated given the limited and symmetric performance information available for the named players. The provided player profiles for Yu-Yun Li, Xinxin Yao and Shuo Feng show similar modest win-loss records and recent poor form, and there is no concrete performance edge shown for the away pairing (E. Cascino data is not provided). Treating the two sides as much closer than the market implies, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 48%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.083; the available home price of 2.28 therefore presents positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.28 - 1 ≈ 0.094), which we consider actionable despite limited data and elevated uncertainty.
Key factors
- • Provided player profiles (Li, Yao, Feng) show similar modest records and recent poor form, indicating teams may be closer than market odds imply
- • No performance data provided for E. Cascino, reducing confidence in the market's favoritism toward the away side
- • Available home price (2.28) exceeds our break-even fair price (~2.083) producing positive EV