Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Luo: ~27%; our estimate: ~40%
• • EV at current odds for Luo: +0.48 (48% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear numerical value vs. market implied probability
• + Zeng's recent form and 10-21 record suggest he is overrated by the market price

Cons

• - Very limited information on YuXuan Luo (unknown form, injuries, H2H)
• - Higher uncertainty due to lack of surface/venue specifics and no head-to-head data

Details

The market strongly favors Zixuan Zeng at 1.24 (implied win probability ~80.6%) while YuXuan Luo is priced at 3.7 (implied ~27.0%). Using only the available player data, Zeng's overall record (10-21) and a run of recent losses indicate form well below what an 80% market price implies. We estimate Zeng's true chance here closer to ~60%, implying Luo's true chance ~40%. At that estimate Luo at 3.7 represents clear value: implied probability (27.0%) << our estimated probability (40%), producing a positive EV (0.48 per unit at current odds). Uncertainty is elevated because we lack any quantified data on YuXuan Luo, unknown surface/venue context for this specific match, and limited head-to-head or injury information, so we keep the probability conservative.

Key factors

• • Zixuan Zeng career record 10-21 and multiple recent losses
• • Market implies Luo only ~27% chance (1/3.7) while our estimate is ~40%
• • Limited/no public data on YuXuan Luo and uncertain surface/venue increases outcome variance