Yufei Ren vs Ayumi Koshiishi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Ayumi Koshiishi at 2.49 given her experience and Ren's poor record; the price implies a lower chance than we estimate, producing ~12% ROI.
Highlights
- • Ayumi's career experience and positive win rate contrast sharply with Ren's 10-21 record
- • Current decimal 2.49 on Ayumi implies break-even probability ~40.2%, below our 45% estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +12%)
- + Strong experience edge for the away player against a young/inexperienced opponent
Cons
- - Surface and detailed recent-match context for this specific event are not provided and could alter win probabilities
- - Both players have recent losses, so short-term form volatility raises outcome uncertainty
Details
The market prices Yufei Ren as a strong favorite at 1.467 (implied ~63% normalized), but the underlying profiles show Ren with a weak career/season record (10-21) and poor recent form, while Ayumi Koshiishi brings far greater experience and a positive career win rate (559-507). Both players have recent losses, but Ayumi's experience and overall winning history make her more likely to win than the market-implied probability for her 2.49 price. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 45% for Ayumi against a decimal price of 2.49 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.49 - 1 = +0.1205). We therefore recommend betting the away player only because current odds (2.49) offer measurable value versus our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Ayumi Koshiishi's long career and positive overall win-loss record (559-507) implies higher baseline quality
- • Yufei Ren's recent season-level record is weak (10-21) with multiple recent losses, suggesting vulnerability
- • Market overprices the home favorite; 2.49 on the away requires only ~40.16% to break even, we estimate ~45% true win chance