Yujin Kim vs Yu Jin Ahn
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With identical available profiles and no clear edge, we assess both players at ~50% win probability; the away price of 2.40 therefore represents positive expected value and is our recommended play.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent results in the research are effectively level between the two players
- • At our 50% forecast the away decimal 2.40 yields +0.20 EV (20% ROI)
Pros
- + Clear mathematical value: 2.40 > 1/0.50 (2.00)
- + No research data favoring the market favorite reduces downside of backing the underdog
Cons
- - Both players show generally poor recent form (10-21), increasing match volatility
- - Limited data and lack of H2H/injury specifics raise model uncertainty
Details
We find value on the away side (Yu Jin Ahn). The published profiles show both players with virtually identical records (10-21), identical career spans, and similar surface experience (Clay, Hard), with no injury or H2H information that would create a clear edge. The market prices make Yujin Kim a strong favorite at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) while Yu Jin Ahn is available at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%). Given the lack of distinguishing evidence in form, surface preference, or health, we estimate the match as essentially even (true win probability ~50% for each). At that probability the away line is mispriced: EV = 0.50 * 2.40 - 1 = +0.20 (20% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal required to justify backing the away player is 2.000. The home price of 1.52 offers negative expected value against our estimate, so we recommend taking the away underdog at current available prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical records and recent profiles (10-21), offering no clear performance edge
- • No injuries, H2H data, or surface advantage in the provided research to justify the market favorite
- • Market implies a large favorite (1.52) while an even true probability makes the 2.40 away price significantly mispriced