Yuka Hosoki vs Natsumi Kawaguchi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given identical profiles and no disqualifying information, the 8.50 price on Hosoki represents clear value versus the market-implied probability; we recommend the home upset as a value bet.
Highlights
- • Book implies Hosoki win ~11.8% at 8.50; our estimate is 40%
- • EV at current odds = +2.40 (240% ROI) based on our estimate
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between implied odds and our estimated probability
- + Research shows no decisive factor favoring the heavy market favorite
Cons
- - Market may incorporate unreported information (late injury, ranking, withdrawal) not present in the research
- - Both players have poor recent records, increasing variance and unpredictability
Details
The market heavily favors the away player at 1.06 (implied away win ~94.3%), while the available research shows near-identical profiles for both players (same 10-21 records, same surfaces, matching recent form). With no injury or head-to-head information differentiating them, the book's price appears extreme. We estimate the underdog (Yuka Hosoki) has materially higher chances than the market-implied ~11.8% for a win at 8.50. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 40% for Hosoki, the bet produces positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 8.50 - 1 = 2.40 (240% ROI). This suggests strong value at current prices, although uncertainty remains because the market may reflect unlisted information or late scratches.
Key factors
- • Both players show virtually identical career records and surface history in the provided data
- • Market implies an extreme probability for the away player (1.06) that is not supported by the supplied profiles
- • No injuries, withdrawals, or H2H data in the research to justify the heavy favorite pricing
- • Recent form for both players in the research is poor and comparable, suggesting a more even matchup