Yuki Mochizuki/Masakatsu Noguchi vs Keisuke Saitoh/Daisuke Sumizawa

Highlights

• • Implied home probability = 69.9% vs our estimate 60% (no value)
• • Missing partner data creates meaningful uncertainty for the doubles matchup

Pros

• + Home side includes a player with a noticeably better win-loss record
• + All players in the research have hard-court experience, so surface mismatch risk is limited

Cons

• - No information provided for Masakatsu Noguchi (home partner), increasing model uncertainty
• - Favorite's market price is too short to provide positive expected value under our estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home side (1.43 -> 69.9%) to our assessment of the true chance. Yuki Mochizuki's profile shows a solid overall record (32-23) and experience on hard courts, while the two listed opponents (Keisuke Saitoh 16-21, Daisuke Sumizawa 18-17) have more mixed recent results. Crucially, we do not have any data on Masakatsu Noguchi in the provided research, which increases uncertainty for the doubles pairing strength and makes it unsafe to assume the market price fully reflects true probabilities. Given the available profiles and the lack of the partner's data, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 60%. That yields an expected value at the current home price of EV = 0.60*1.43 - 1 = -0.142 (negative). To find positive EV we'd need decimal odds >= 1.667 for the home side (or value on the away side at odds > = 1/estimated_probability_away). Because the quoted home price (1.43) is shorter than the minimum fair odds implied by our estimate, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Home player Yuki Mochizuki has a stronger overall record (32-23) and hard-court experience
• • Opponents' profiles (Saitoh and Sumizawa) show mixed recent form and losing stretches
• • No data provided for Masakatsu Noguchi (home partner) increases uncertainty in doubles pairing strength