Yuki Mochizuki/Masakatsu Noguchi vs M. Imamura/N. Tajima
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value exists at current prices: the underdog would need ~6.667 decimal to be a value bet given our ~15% win estimate; current 5.4 is too short.
Highlights
- • Home (underdog) estimated win probability ~15%
- • Required fair odds ~6.667 vs current 5.4 — negative EV
Pros
- + Mochizuki has match experience on hard courts
- + Underdog status could offer value if price drifts higher
Cons
- - Insufficient doubles-specific data and no partner performance info
- - Market heavily favours opponent; current prices do not reflect value for backing the upset
Details
The market strongly favors M. Imamura/N. Tajima at 1.13 (implied ~88.5%). The only specific player data available is a limited profile for Yuki Mochizuki showing moderate recent match volume and experience on hard courts, but no doubles-specific form, partner history, injuries, or H2H info is provided. Given the sparse evidence and the large market gap, we estimate the underdog team (Yuki Mochizuki/Masakatsu Noguchi) has roughly a 15% chance to win. At that true probability the fair decimal price would be ~6.667; the current offered price of 5.4 for the home side does not meet our minimum required odds and yields a negative EV. Likewise, we see no credible justification to believe the heavy favorite’s true win probability exceeds the implied 88.5% necessary to find value on the favorite at 1.13. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Large market gap: away implied probability ~88.5% (1.13)
- • Limited available data: only moderate singles results for Yuki Mochizuki, no doubles/partner form
- • Surface familiarity (hard) for Mochizuki exists, but insufficient to overcome market gap