Highlights

• • Market implies ~59.2% for the home player; our estimate is ~58.5%
• • Required fair price for value on Mochizuki is ~1.709; current 1.69 is insufficient

Pros

• + Mochizuki has a marginally better career win percentage
• + Both players have experience on hard courts so matchup is likely neutral rather than favouring the underdog

Cons

• - Edge is very small; market price already reflects most of Mochizuki's slight advantage
• - No strong form, H2H, or surface evidence in the provided data to justify taking the short price

Details

We compared the market prices to our estimated win probability for Yuki Mochizuki. The market implies a ~59.2% probability for Mochizuki at 1.69 (1/1.69 = 0.5917). Mochizuki's career win rate (32/55 = 58.18%) is slightly higher than Dellavedova's (46/81 = 56.79%), supporting a modest edge for the home player. After accounting for limited additional edge (no clear surface advantage, no injury indicators, no H2H advantage in the supplied data) we estimate Mochizuki's true win probability at 58.5% (0.585). That implies a fair decimal price of ~1.709. The available 1.69 is slightly shorter than our required price, producing a small negative expected value (EV = 0.585*1.69 - 1 = -0.011). Because EV is negative at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet. If the market moves to 1.71 or higher on Mochizuki, value would appear under our model.

Key factors

• • Mochizuki has a slightly better career win rate (32/55 = 58.2%) than Dellavedova (46/81 = 56.8%)
• • Market-implied probability for Mochizuki (59.17%) is slightly higher than our estimate (58.5%), leaving no edge
• • No clear surface or injury information in supplied data to materially shift probabilities