Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Cherubini: ~42.9%
• • Our estimated probability for Cherubini: 45% → implied fair odds 2.222

Pros

• + Current odds (2.33) exceed our fair-odds threshold (2.222), producing positive EV
• + Players' comparable form reduces likelihood of large unmodeled advantages

Cons

• - Edge is small (~4.85% ROI) and sensitive to small probability errors
• - Limited and symmetric data increases variance and uncertainty

Details

We estimate a small value on Diletta Cherubini as an underdog. The market prices Yuki Naito at 1.578 (implied ~63.4%) and Cherubini at 2.33 (implied ~42.9%). The research shows nearly identical career records and recent poor form for both players, with no clear surface or injury edge reported. Given the similarity, we assign Cherubini a true win probability of 45%. That implies minimum fair odds of 2.222; the current price of 2.33 exceeds that threshold. Using p=0.45 the EV = 0.45*2.33 - 1 = 0.0485 (≈4.85% ROI), a small positive edge after comparing our probability against the quoted odds. We remain cautious due to limited and symmetrical data, so the recommendation is a modest value play rather than a strong conviction.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the research
• • No reported injuries or clear surface advantage for either player
• • Market overprices the favorite enough to create a small value on the underdog