Highlights

• • Market may underprice home team's experience according to provided records
• • Positive EV at current home decimal odds 2.33

Pros

• + Home duo shows stronger combined career win-loss figures in the supplied data
• + Current price (2.33) offers a cushion vs our probability estimate

Cons

• - Research data is limited and dated, increasing uncertainty
• - Grand Slam semifinal stakes can produce upsets and volatility

Details

The market prices the away pair at decimal 1.595 (implied ~62.7%) and the home pair at 2.33 (implied ~42.9%). The limited player data provided shows Yuki Bhambri with a strong overall career win-loss record and Michael Venus with substantial doubles experience, while the documented records for Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski in the provided research are weaker. On hard courts all listed players have experience, so surface does not materially disadvantage the home side. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 48.0% (greater than the market-implied 42.9%), producing positive expected value at the current home odds 2.33.

Key factors

• • Home pair combined career records in the provided data indicate stronger overall results and experience
• • Away pair profiles in the provided research show weaker historical win-loss records
• • Match on hard court — all players have recorded hard-court matches in the provided data, so surface is neutral