Highlights

• • Mochizuki is the clear favorite by experience and win rate, but current odds are too short to offer value.
• • We calculate required fair odds around 1.572 for a break-even investment versus the market 1.159.

Pros

• + Mochizuki has a larger sample size and better overall record on relevant surfaces.
• + Limited data for Takahata increases uncertainty and favors the more experienced player.

Cons

• - Mochizuki has shown recent losses which raise upset risk in a single-match ITF setting.
• - Bookmaker price (1.159) implies an unrealistically high win probability relative to available data.

Details

We compared the quoted market price (Yuki Mochizuki 1.159) to a conservative in-house win probability derived from the provided career records and recent form. Mochizuki has a substantially larger sample (32-23 across 55 matches) versus Takahata (4-8 across 12 matches) and clearly more experience on hard courts, so we assign Mochizuki the edge. However, Mochizuki's raw career win rate (32/55 = 58.2%) versus Takahata's (4/12 = 33.3%) translates to an adjusted estimated probability of about 63.6% once we normalize for sample sizes and uncertainty. That 63.6% true probability implies fair decimal odds of ~1.572. The market price of 1.159 implies a probability (~86.2%) far higher than our estimate, producing negative expected value on the favorite. Given the information available (no H2H, limited data for Takahata, and some recent losses shown for Mochizuki), there is no value at the current home price, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Mochizuki 32-23 (58.2%) vs Takahata 4-8 (33.3%)
• • Both players have hard-court experience, but Mochizuki has a much larger sample and more matches played
• • Recent results are mixed (Mochizuki has recent losses), increasing outcome variance despite overall edge