Highlights

• • Market implies ~82% for home; we estimate ~60%
• • Required fair odds for value: >=1.667 (current 1.216 gives negative EV)

Pros

• + Home is correctly favored based on limited data; a moderate edge may exist if more evidence emerges
• + Low upside in current market — small margin for improvement in odds would create value

Cons

• - Current price (1.216) offers a large negative expected value versus our estimate
• - Research provides no decisive surface, form, or injury advantage to justify heavy favoritism

Details

We find no evidence in the provided research to justify the market's heavy favoritism for Yuliana Lizarazo at 1.216 (implied ~82%). The supplied player profiles are essentially identical, showing similar long careers and recent poor form for both players; there is no clear surface, injury, or H2H advantage that supports a true win probability near 82%. Conservatively, we estimate Lizarazo's true win probability around 60%, which implies fair odds of ~1.667. At the current price of 1.216 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.216 - 1 = -0.270), so we do not recommend backing the favorite. We would only consider a bet on Lizarazo if decimal odds rise to at least 1.667 or higher, or else look for an alternative market with positive EV.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles are nearly identical with similar career records — no clear superiority shown
• • Recent form in the research shows losses for both players; no dominant form advantage
• • Market-implied probability (82%) far exceeds our conservative estimate (60%), creating a negative EV at current odds