Highlights

• • Market implies away win ~79.8% while our estimate is ~50%
• • Home required price to be +EV is 2.00; current 3.59 is well above that

Pros

• + Large pricing disparity creates substantial theoretical ROI
• + No research-provided factors (form, surface, injuries) supporting the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Small sample of provided data and identical profiles increase uncertainty
• - Market may have outside information not present in the research that justifies the short favorite

Details

We view the market as overstating the away favorite here. The current moneyline implies Jennifer Ruggeri has ~79.8% chance (1/1.254) while Yuliana Lizarazo is priced at ~27.9% (1/3.59). The supplied profiles show nearly identical records, surfaces played, and recent form with no injury or clear advantage for Ruggeri; given that parity we estimate the true probabilities are roughly even (50/50). At that estimated probability the home price of 3.59 offers clear value versus the market-implied 0.279 probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent match lines in the provided data
• • Both have experience on the same surfaces (clay and hard) — no surface edge identified
• • No injuries or H2H information reported that would justify the heavy market favoritism
• • Market-implied probabilities are heavily skewed toward the away side despite balanced profiles