Yuliana Lizarazo vs Noemi Maines

Highlights

• • Market implies away ~28.6% but our model estimates ~48%
• • Min fair odds for value ≈ 2.083; current 3.5 is well above that

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and the market-implied probability
• + No reported injuries or surface disadvantage in the provided data

Cons

• - Very limited and similar data for both players increases uncertainty
• - Both players have losing season records (10-21) so match outcomes are high variance

Details

We estimate that the market has materially over-weighted the home player. The listed moneyline implies the home is ~79.4% to win (1/1.26) while the away price of 3.5 implies ~28.6%. The supplied player data shows both competitors with identical season records (10-21) and mixed surface experience (Clay/Hard) and no clear injury or head-to-head information to justify a near-80% market probability for the home side. Conservatively, we estimate Noemi Maines' true win probability at 48%; at that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.083. At the available price of 3.5 the expected value is positive (EV = 0.48 * 3.5 - 1 = 0.68), so the away selection represents clear value versus the current market.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical season records (10-21) and mixed surface exposure — no clear performance gap
• • Market-implied probabilities diverge sharply: home 1.26 -> ~79.4%, away 3.5 -> ~28.6%, while our assessment is much closer to even
• • No injury reports, head-to-head, or surface-specific advantage present in the provided data, increasing model uncertainty