Highlights

• • Away price 3.43 implies only ~29% chance but our model assigns ~40%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds for our estimate is 2.50, well below the market price

Pros

• + Clear experience and long-term win-rate edge for Boehner
• + Large margin between required probability for value and our conservative estimate

Cons

• - Recent match listings in the provided data are limited and include losses for both players, creating some short-term noise
• - Surface and very recent form details in the research are sparse, increasing uncertainty

Details

We find value on Laura Boehner (away). The market heavily favors Yuliana Lizarazo at 1.289 (implied ~77.6%) while the away price 3.43 implies ~29.2%. The research shows a large experience and career-win advantage for Boehner (559-507 across a long career) versus Lizarazo's limited sample (10-21). Given Boehner's much larger match sample and higher long-term win rate, we estimate Boehner's true chance materially exceeds the market-implied 29.2%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 40.0% for Boehner, the expected value at the current decimal price 3.43 is EV = 0.40 * 3.43 - 1 = 0.372 (37.2% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for that probability is 2.500, well below the available 3.43, indicating clear value on the away moneyline despite some data noise in recent results.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win-rate for Laura Boehner (559-507) vs small sample and lower win-rate for Yuliana Lizarazo (10-21)
• • Market-implied probability for the away underdog (29.2%) appears too low relative to Boehner’s career profile
• • Current odds (3.43) offer a required probability threshold (~29.2%) that is well below our conservative true probability estimate (40%)