Highlights

• • Market implies 73.5% for home which is not supported by the available data
• • At our 44% estimate, the away line 2.87 yields ~26% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Clear numerical value at the quoted away price
• + Conservative probability estimate (44%) still produces positive EV

Cons

• - Research is limited — no H2H, venue/surface confirmation for this event, or deeper form metrics
• - Small-sample career records (31 matches) increase outcome variance — higher match-level volatility

Details

Both players have nearly identical career records and surfaces played (10-21 across clay and hard) with no reported injuries or clear form advantage in the provided research. The market-implied probability for the home favorite (1.361) is about 73.5%, which is implausibly high given the parity in available data. With no H2H or injury information to justify such a large gap, we conservatively project Noemi Maines (away) at a 44% win probability. At decimal odds 2.87 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 2.87 - 1 = +0.2628), so the away price represents value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surfaces (both 10-21; clay and hard) — little form separation
• • No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either player in the provided data
• • Bookmaker price (home 1.361) implies an outsized favorite; away 2.87 appears underpriced relative to parity