Yuna Ohashi vs Erika Sema
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market appears to severely overprice Erika Sema; backing Yuna Ohashi at 12.27 represents strong value versus our 40% win probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for Away is ~93.5% despite matched records
- • Home price 12.27 requires only 2.5 decimal odds to be break-even at our estimated probability
Pros
- + Very large positive expected value at current home price
- + Research shows parity between players, supporting an underdog edge
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks ranking, H2H and injury specifics
- - Unusual market pricing could be due to outside information not in the provided sources
Details
We find clear value on Yuna Ohashi (home). The market prices Erika Sema at 1.071 (implied ~93.5%), which is inconsistent with the provided profiles: both players show near-identical records (10-21), similar surfaces and recent poor form. There is no injury or H2H data in the research to justify a near-100% market probability for Sema. Treating the matchup as much closer to even, we estimate Ohashi's true win chance materially higher than the market implies. Using a conservative estimated_true_probability of 40% for Ohashi versus the offered decimal 12.27 yields a large positive expected value. Even with conservative assumptions the line looks mispriced; therefore we recommend the home underdog at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical profiles and 10-21 records, suggesting parity
- • Market extreme pricing (Away 1.071) implies ~93.5% which is unsupported by the data provided
- • No injuries, H2H or surface advantages shown in research to justify the short favorite
- • Current home price (12.27) offers a large margin over our conservative probability estimate