Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Yuna at 1.05 is ~95.2%
• • Our estimated true probability for Yuna is ~32%, implying fair odds ~3.096

Pros

• + We rely on concrete recorded results (10-21 career record) rather than market narrative
• + Clear and large discrepancy between market odds and evidence-based estimate

Cons

• - Research includes no data for Olivia Quigley, creating uncertainty about matchup context
• - Limited dataset; if additional contextual information (injury, walkover, opponent weakness) exists, it could change the assessment

Details

The market prices Yuna Ohashi as an overwhelming favorite at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%). Our independent estimate, based only on the provided player data, assigns Yuna a substantially lower true win probability (around 32%). That estimate is driven by her overall career record of 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches ≈ 32%) and poor recent form (only 1 win visible in the recent matches noted). There is no data provided for Olivia Quigley to justify the market’s near-certain pricing. Using our estimated true probability, the fair decimal price would be ~3.096, far above the quoted 1.05, so the favorite’s current price offers deeply negative expected value. Because the market price demands a ~95.2% win probability to be profitable and our assessment is ~32%, we do not recommend backing the heavy favorite at available prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rate for Yuna Ohashi is 10/31 (~32%)
• • Recent form listed is poor (very few recent wins)
• • Market price (1.05) implies an implausibly high probability given available data