Highlights

• • Market implies Tiukaev ~52.6%; we estimate ~52.0% — slight negative EV at 1.901
• • Jin is favored by the market more heavily (1.794) despite a marginally worse record

Pros

• + Tiukaev has a small statistical edge in career win rate on similar surfaces
• + Both players have hard-court experience, reducing matchup uncertainty

Cons

• - Both records and recent form are poor and noisy, increasing variance
• - Current odds do not offer a positive expected value for either side

Details

We estimate Ruslan Tiukaev is marginally the more likely winner based on slightly better career win rate and comparable experience on hard courts, but the edge is small. The market-implied probability for Tiukaev at 1.901 is ~52.6%; our assessed true probability is 52.0%, producing a slight negative edge (EV ≈ -0.011) at current prices. Home player Yuquan Jin has a marginally worse career record (8-18 vs 8-16) but home surface familiarity reduces the gap; the market prices Jin more strongly (1.794 implied ~55.8%) than our assessment would justify. Given the narrow differences and limited, noisy sample sizes, neither side offers positive expected value at the current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Both players have similar career records and experience on hard courts
• • Tiukaev has a marginally better win rate (8-16 vs 8-18)
• • Market odds slightly overvalue the home player relative to available form data
• • Small sample sizes and limited recent-match clarity increase outcome variance