Yuriko Lily Miyazaki vs Astrid Lew Yan Foon

Highlights

• • Away player has 10-21 season record with recent straight losses
• • Current market price of 1.358 offers a modest value if home true win chance ≥78%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Decision supported by clear negative form signal for the opponent

Cons

• - Edge is modest — not a large misprice
• - Analysis limited by lack of direct data about the home player's recent form, matchup specifics, or injuries

Details

We see Astrid Lew Yan Foon carrying a poor 10-21 season record with recent straight losses, indicating form and confidence problems. The market prices Yuriko Lily Miyazaki as a clear favorite at 1.358 (implied ~73.7%). Given Astrid's recent results and the absence of any research suggesting Miyazaki is compromised (no injuries or negative indicators provided), we believe the true chance of the home player winning is meaningfully higher than the market-implied break-even probability (1/1.358 = 0.737). We estimate Miyazaki's win probability at 78.0%, which gives positive expected value at the current decimal price of 1.358. EV calculation: 0.78 * 1.358 - 1 = +0.059 (≈ +5.9% ROI). The edge is modest but real based on the available form data for the away player and the market pricing.

Key factors

• • Astrid Lew Yan Foon's poor season record (10-21) and recent losses reduce her win expectancy
• • Bookmakers already price the home player as a strong favorite (1.358), but implied probability appears slightly conservative vs. away player's form
• • No negative indicators for the home player appear in the provided research, lowering downside risk