Yuriko Miyazaki vs Astrid Lew Yan Foon

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Miyazaki: 73.5% (1.36)
• • Our estimated true probability: 62% -> requires >= 1.613 to be +EV

Pros

• + Miyazaki is the clear market favorite and would be the conventional pick
• + If additional information (injury to opponent, last-minute withdrawal) emerges, edge could change

Cons

• - Research shows both players with similar poor records and no distinguishing advantages
• - Current favorite price is too short versus our probability estimate, producing negative EV

Details

We compared the market price (Yuriko Miyazaki 1.36 => implied 73.5%) to our assessment. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form in the Research, with no clear H2H advantage or injury information. Given the limited information and symmetry in the profiles, we estimate Yuriko's true win probability at 62% (0.62), which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.613. At the current market price of 1.36 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.36 - 1 = -0.157), so there is no value to back the favorite. Because expected_value is not > 0 at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided Research
• • Market price (1.36) implies a 73.5% win chance for Miyazaki, which exceeds our estimated 62% true probability
• • No H2H, injury, or surface-advantage information present in the Research to justify the heavy favorite price