Yuriko Miyazaki vs Victoria Allen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Victoria Allen at 2.85 because the market overprices Miyazaki given nearly identical profiles; Allen's estimated win chance (42%) yields ~19.7% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies Miyazaki ~73% win chance — likely too high
- • Conservative true estimate for Allen (42%) gives positive EV at 2.85
Pros
- + Strong value gap between market price and conservative win-probability estimate
- + No negative injury/form indicators for the underdog in the provided data
Cons
- - Limited data and no head-to-head or surface-specific edge in the research
- - Model is conservative but still subject to uncertainty from unreported variables (venue conditions, recent practice, etc.)
Details
We find value on Victoria Allen (away). The market prices Yuriko Miyazaki at 1.37 (implied ~73.0%), which overstates the favorite given the research: both players have nearly identical recent records (Miyazaki 10-21, Allen 10-22) and similar surface experience (Clay and Hard). There are no injury notes or clear form advantages in the provided data to justify a 73% true chance for Miyazaki. Conservatively estimating Allen's true win probability at 42% (vs. the market-implied ~35.1% at 2.85) produces a positive expected value. At the current away price of 2.85 our EV = 0.42 * 2.85 - 1 = +0.197 (≈19.7% ROI). We therefore recommend the away underdog only because the price (2.85) exceeds the break-even threshold implied by our model (min required decimal odds 2.381).
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical seasonal records (10-21 vs 10-22)
- • No injury or form advantage found in the provided research
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite appears inflated relative to available data