Highlights

• • Market implies ~65% for the favorite; our conservative estimate is 60%
• • Required fair odds for value on the favorite: ≥1.667; current 1.538 is insufficient

Pros

• + Clear, conservative valuation based on lack of verifiable data
• + Identifies precise break-even odds (1.667) for the favorite

Cons

• - Estimate is conservative due to absent match-specific info and may miss real advantages
• - ITF matches are volatile; unknown factors could shift true probability materially

Details

We have no external match-specific data (form, surface preference, injuries, H2H), so we adopt a conservative baseline. The market odds give the home favorite (Miyazaki) decimal 1.538 (implied ~65.0%). Given the tournament level and lack of verifiable information, we estimate the home player's true win probability at 60.0%. At that probability the fair odds are ~1.667; the current price of 1.538 is too short and produces a negative expected value. Therefore there is no value on either side at the quoted prices — to back the favorite profitably we would need at least 1.667, and we do not see evidence the market is underestimating the favorite by that margin.

Key factors

• • No external data on recent form, injuries, surface preference or H2H — we use a conservative baseline
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (~65%) is higher than our conservative estimate (60%)
• • ITF-level matches often have higher variance; small information gaps increase uncertainty